While a U.S. Representative to the Asian Development Bank
Executive Board of Directors during the first Bush Administration,
I consistently called for China to "bite the bullet" and privatize
its
state-
owned companies as soon as
possible. Representatives from European and other Asian
countries would just shake their heads and mutter about
impatient Americans while counseling that China adopt a slow,
incremental approach to privatization.
Private Equity Fund Of Funds Here we are more than twelve years later and this bullet has
turned into a time bomb that could derail China's impressive
economic growth and a better life for its people. The fact that a
majority of China's large companies are still owned and controlled
by the Chinese government has three negative economic
consequences.
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Curve Equity Exposed Fund First, it has stunted the growth of China's financial markets
and prevented many companies from tapping equity capital markets.
Almost 70% of the shares of China's 1,377 listed companies are
substantially owned by the state and cannot be traded. This is the
dreaded "overhang" which bedevils the Communist Party leadership
and bureaucrats anxious for private Chinese shareholders to have
share prices mirror economic growth. The Shanghai Composite Index
recently dipped below 1,000 for the first time since 1997. The
problem is that when the government sells these shares, private
shareholders are diluted and share prices decline. The use of
public funds to compensate private shareholders for this dilution
has been considered and rejected as too expensive.
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Equity Income Funds The Chinese government announced a $15 billion buyout fund to
invest in state-owned companies but markets are deeply skeptical.
My view is that only solution is auction off equity to private
investors and de-list poor performers and let them struggle for
survival.
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Capital Casebook Equity Meanwhile private firms hungry for capital are denied a chance
to list on these exchanges. The result is that private Chinese
companies rely on banks for 99% of their financing! This lopsided
dependence on bank financing is unhealthy and furthermore many
Chinese banks are bogged down by mismanagement, bloated
bureaucracies, corruption and saddled with politically motivated
non-performing loans
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Private Investment In Public In addition, China's stock market slump is putting its brokerage
firms in intensive care. China's 114 brokerage firms that depend
largely on stock trading commissions suffered a 45% decline in
revenue in the first half of this year. Trading in the China A
shares (for Chinese citizens only) market has virtually
disappeared. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 15% this year.
The Chinese government also has an unofficial moratorium on new
listings.
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Equity Mutual Funds Second, maintaining state ownership and control of so many
Chinese companies leads to a lack of transparency and openness that
is necessary for China to fully participate as a member of the
global investment community. Foreign institutional investors tend
to favor investing indirectly in China through the Hong Kong Stock
Exchange to gain better disclosure and listing requirements. As an
investment advisor, I recommend clients participate in Chinese
growth primarily through investing in Hong Kong (EWH) Malaysia
(EWM),
Canada, (EWC) Australia (EWA),
and other Asian countries. The issue of dysfunctional Chinese
financial markets has also led to our recommendation to clients
that India, not China, may be the best performing Asian stock
market in the next ten or twenty years.
Birmingham Contact Equity The recent announcements of Bank of America and HSBC to invest
in two leading Chinese Banks is a welcome step but falls far short
of the mark. Both are relatively small investments and both foreign
investors will have little authority nor any meaningful management
responsibilities. The Chinese want the publicity, the brand and the
opportunity to learn but are
clearly unwilling to relinquish any control.
Private Equity Investment Firm Look at what Indonesia is doing to open its financial sector to
international investment. International investors are now allowed
majority and management control and just last week a large
Singapore and Malaysian bank announced plans to make sizable
investments in Indonesian banks. The Indonesia government is also
drawing up a list of which of its 145 state-owned enterprises will
be sold to investors. International investors have taken notice -
the Indonesian stock market is doing well and our recommended
Indonesia Fund
(IF) is up 29% this year.
Complying Deal Equity Funds Third, as the recent high profile cases of Lenovo, Haier and
CNOOC demonstrate, as state-owned Chinese companies seek to acquire
or invest in foreign companies, the reaction is wariness,
skepticism and outright political hostility. The Chinese leadership
is trying to groom about 100 of its largest companies to go global
in a big way and "brand hunting" of leading multinationals firms
with its surplus cash ($700 billion in foreign exchange reserves)
is the fastest way to achieve this objective. If you thought the
Japanese spending spree during the 1980s was controversial in
America - fasten your seat belt.
Equity Msn Private Wyoming The U.S. Congress and other foreign governments will resist
these bids since they have little interest in having a foreign
government, especially an economic rival enjoying a $200 billion
bi-lateral trade surplus, purchase its most prized companies. The
issue of Chinese bidders using government financing is also a red
flag. Then there is the issue of reciprocity - foreign companies
can only obtain minority interests in Chinese state-owned companies
and approval for even these minority stakes is not transparent and
highly political.
American Equity Investment Finally, there is the broad policy question as to the intent of
the Chinese Communist leadership. The slow and grudging pace of
privatization could reasonably be read as an indication that the
Chinese government has no intention of relinquishing control of
state-owned companies. This, in turn, has serious consequences as
countries evaluate how to treat a rapidly growing authoritarian
country that seeks to participate and benefit in the global
economy by using state-owned
and
state-sponsored companies.
Equity Index Funds The Chinese adage of "crossing the river by feeling the stones"
may be a wise policy at times but in this case a plunge into the
river ten years ago would have been much better for the Chinese
economy and people. It is by no means too late to take the plunge
and the US should be ready to help in any way it can.
Equity Private Team Wyoming Find out more insights at
http://www.chartwelladvisor.com
Equity Group Investment Copyright 2005 Carl Delfeld
Capital Development Equity
About The Author: Carl Delfeld is head of the global advisory firm
Chartwell Partners and is editor of the "Chartwell Advisor" and the
"Asia Investor Intelligence" newsletters. He served on the
Executive Board of Directors of the Asian Development Bank in
Manila and is the author of The New Global Investor. For more
information go to http://www.ChartwellAdvisor.com
Article Between Difference Carl Delfeld is head of the global advisory firm Chartwell
Partners and is editor of the "Chartwell Advisor" and the "Asia
Investor Intelligence" newsletters. He served on the Executive
Board of Directors of the Asian Development Bank in Manila and is
the author of The New Global Investor. For more information go to
http://www.ChartwellAdvisor.com
Contact Equity Private Wyoming
Contact him at http://www.ChartwellAdvisor.com
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