China's Plans to Rein in Its Overheated Economy Will Have
Little Impact on the IT Industry, According to IDC
Singapore, 21 June, 2004 Chinas economy has seen rapid growth over
the past ten years, reaching its peak in 2003 at 9.1%. However,
recent signs of over-investment in some industries have led the
Chinese government to announce a series of macro-economic policy
changes aimed at regulating China's soaring economy. IDC maintains
that these policy shifts may be able to contain the growth
explosion in some industries, but their impact on IT spending in
China will remain minimal.
Ken Xie, General Manager and Chief Analyst in IDC China says, "The
real
estate sector and selected manufacturing industries
such as steel, electro-lytic aluminium and concrete, will be most
affected by these government regulations. However, as a whole,
these industries account for only a small proportion of the total
IT spending in China. A slow down in capital investments in these
industries is therefore unlikely to cause a decline in IT
infrastructure investments.
Private Equity Fund Of Funds As China continues to move towards a market-driven economy,
which emphasizes profits and returns on investments, IT has been
largely regarded as the catalyst that will help lead the economy
forward. "China's flourishing private sector associates investments
in IT with increases in productivity and international
competitiveness, and this will help to drive investments in IT and
increase overall IT spending. This is also in line with the
governments objective of accelerating industrialization with
information technology," added Mr. Xie.
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Curve Equity Exposed Fund IDC remains optimistic in its forecast of the Chinese IT market,
despite the announced policies designed to rein in its overheated
economy. During IDC's annual Directions conference in April this
year, IDC predicted that China's IT market would continue its
robust growth in 2004 and well into 2008 at a compound annual
growth rate of 15%, doubling from US$25 billion to US$50.8 billion
in 2008. This will be driven by IT spending in the government,
education, manufacturing and retail industries, which will
experience higher than average growth rates.
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Equity Income Funds IDC's annual Directions conference is recognized as the
industry's premier event that delivers an informative and
actionable overview of the issues shaping the technology industry,
and the resulting impact on the
businesses of IT providers and
users.
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Capital Casebook Equity In China, excessive investments in certain industries is not
unprecedented, especially in light of China's economic growth and
transformation. Similar occurrences have also been encountered in
the last twenty years since China embarked on its economic reform
policy. In addition to excess investments, Chinas economy also
experienced other acute challenges, including inflated financial
assets, unbalanced industrial development, and dislocation
associated with the transformation of state-owned enterprise.
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Private Investment In Public Reflecting on China's impressive economic achievements over the
past twenty years, IDC is confident that the Chinese authorities
will successfully adjust its economic policies to keep the economy
on the right track. "Government support is vital to the success of
China. At IDC, we believe that the announced government initiatives
to prevent overheating and keep inflation in check will ensure
sustainable economic growth and healthy IT investments in China for
the years to come," said Mr. Xie.
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Equity Mutual Funds Since the opening of the IDC China's office in 1992, IDC's
research of the China market has grown both in
depth and in breadth. From a
country level overview, IDC now covers the hardware market both
at the sub-regional and provincial level, as well as offers a
wide portfolio of technology, research, and advisory services
covering IT segments like telecommunications, software and
services, peripherals and IT spending, as well as vertical
industry research. The following are related IDC research that
will track and report the latest in China's IT and telecom
market:
Birmingham Contact Equity * China Internet Economy, 2003-2008
* China IT Market Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
* China PC Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
* China System Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
* China IT Services Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
* China Packaged Software Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
* China Telecom Service Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
* China Network Equipment Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
Private Equity Investment Firm For more information about IDC's China research, please contact
Yi-Feng Song at +86-10-8391-3610 ext 3602 or ysong@idc.com, or in
the US, Travis Darrow at 1-650-962-6294, tdarrow@idc.com. For press
inquiries, please contact Ee Laine Ng at +65-6228-7769 or
elng@idc.com.
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